The analysis suggests a potential deal between the United States and Russia will not resolve the ongoing conflict, but instead lay the groundwork for future instability. Moscow is currently assessing two factors from the US before making further moves: the political cost Russia would face for attacking NATO, and the reduction of US troops. A peace agreement favorable to Moscow would decrease both the political and military risks associated with further aggression. Essentially, Russia is waiting to observe how the US balances its willingness to negotiate with its commitment to NATO security. The report indicates that a US troop withdrawal would be seen by Moscow as a weakening of resolve, encouraging further actions. This dynamic implies that, rather than leading to peace, any agreement reached could simply postpone a larger, future confrontation.