Oil shipments from the Persian Gulf are currently almost as high as they were before the Iran-Iraq War, a situation the United States touts as a success. However, the reality is more complex. This apparent stability relies heavily on avoiding direct conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial shipping lane. Negotiations with Iran remain stalled, creating significant uncertainty regarding future oil flows. Without a resolution in talks with Iran, upward pressure on oil prices is likely to persist. This situation highlights the ongoing geopolitical risks affecting global energy markets. Any escalation in tensions could disrupt supply chains and further increase prices, impacting the global economy.