A fragile agreement to end the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran will allow Iran to resume oil exports, a practice halted since 2018. While the deal permits sales on global markets, experts predict a gradual increase in export volume. The wider region’s oil production and export levels from the Persian Gulf are not expected to return to pre-war levels quickly. Analysts estimate a full recovery will take months, with the end of the year being a likely timeframe. The ceasefire does not guarantee an immediate drop in oil prices due to the anticipated slow ramp-up of Iranian supply. The agreement marks a significant shift, but the market impact will be phased. This cautious outlook reflects the complexities of restoring production capacity and navigating geopolitical factors.