A recent article by international relations scholar Thomas Carothers, published over 20 years ago, offers insights into Venezuela’s potential 2026 transition. Carothers’ research suggests that initiated dialogue and transitional processes do not automatically lead to successful democratic outcomes. The piece, highlighted by Rafael Uzcátegui, cautions against assuming positive change simply from the commencement of negotiations. It implies Venezuela's political future remains uncertain despite any dialogue efforts. The article serves as a reminder that transitions are complex and require more than just discussion to achieve lasting democratic reform. The original publication appeared in TalCual, a Venezuelan news outlet. This analysis frames the upcoming electoral period with a note of realism.