A new hypothesis is emerging in discussions regarding Venezuela’s political transition – the potential repetition of the “Nicaragua effect.” This perspective suggests that a rapid transition could enable Chavismo to mirror the actions of the Sandinismo movement in Nicaragua. Specifically, the concern is that Chavismo might relinquish power while retaining significant influence and control. The analysis, penned by Rafael Uzcátegui, cautions against drawing parallels between the situations in Venezuela and Nicaragua. This comparison, Uzcátegui argues, is a misleading one that doesn’t accurately reflect the complexities of the Venezuelan political landscape. The piece, originally published on TalCual, suggests a nuanced understanding is required when considering potential paths forward for Venezuela.