A preliminary agreement between the US and Iran has been reached, though its longevity remains uncertain given conflicting perspectives from Iran and Israel. While Iran considers the conflict concluded, Israel maintains its struggle continues, creating opportunities for disruption. The ceasefire was facilitated by pragmatic actors but faces threats from those who view the conflict as inevitable. The war has fundamentally altered the West Asian security landscape, blurring the lines between South and West Asian security concerns and exposing weaknesses in existing regional alliances. Gulf states feel unsupported by US security guarantees amid Israeli actions and Iranian responses, straining GCC-US relations. Furthermore, the conflict has exacerbated divisions among Gulf Arab states, particularly regarding Saudi-UAE alignment, impacting regional dynamics and Pakistan’s perceptions of the Gulf.
