The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assesses that newly established Russian military bases near the NATO border are not preparations for an immediate attack on the alliance. Instead, these bases are likely intended to rebuild Russian military capabilities following the war in Ukraine and to project force in a post-conflict environment. Analysts believe Russia is focusing on reconstituting its forces and establishing a defensive posture. The ISW suggests these bases will serve to deter further NATO involvement and potentially facilitate future limited operations. This assessment contradicts speculation that the bases represent an escalation towards direct conflict with NATO members. The think tank emphasizes the bases are part of a longer-term strategy focused on restoring Russia’s military strength and influence. Currently, Russia lacks the capacity for a large-scale offensive against NATO.