The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that Russia’s sustained and large-scale drone attacks on Ukraine are likely aimed at forcing Ukraine’s capitulation by spring 2027. This assessment suggests the attacks aren't solely about territorial gains, but a broader strategy to erode Ukraine’s will to resist. According to the ISW, Russian President Vladimir Putin is not expected to moderate his demands or engage in meaningful ceasefire negotiations while pursuing this strategy. This approach implies an expectation of continued, intense conflict over the next two years. The ISW believes Putin is awaiting the outcome of this new purported strategy before considering any form of de-escalation. The continued attacks on Ukraine are therefore viewed as a deliberate tactic intended to compel a favorable outcome for Russia.