Former Latvian Ambassador to Russia, Māris Melnis, asserts that Russia currently lacks the military capacity to launch a direct, conventional attack against NATO. He bases this assessment on Russia’s demonstrated military performance in Ukraine, highlighting significant equipment and personnel losses. Melnis contends that, despite aggressive rhetoric, Russia’s weakened state prevents it from posing an immediate conventional threat to the alliance. He clarifies that this assessment does not imply a complete absence of risk, particularly regarding hybrid warfare tactics and potential escalation. Melnis acknowledged the possibility of provocations and border incidents but emphasized these differ from a full-scale conventional invasion. The statement offers a current evaluation of the military balance, suggesting a shift in the perceived threat landscape. He further notes, however, that the situation remains dynamic and requires constant monitoring.