Andy Burnham is positioning himself to challenge Prime Minister Keir Starmer for national leadership. His success depends on winning Thursday’s election in Makerfield to secure the necessary seat. However, his potential victory may stem more from external factors than personal popularity. Two populist right-wing parties are currently engaged in a bitter feud. This conflict is splitting the conservative vote in the region. Such division significantly weakens the right-wing opposition's chances. Consequently, the political fragmentation is strengthening Burnham's bid for power.