The United States’ threat of “toughest sanctions in history” against Iran is increasing tensions in the Gulf and prompting consideration of retaliatory measures from Tehran. After six months of conflict, the US aims to force Iran to concede to its demands through economic pressure. One key Iranian strategy, repeatedly voiced including by former Revolutionary Guards chief Mohsen Rezaei, involves disrupting oil exports from the Middle East. This potential move represents a significant escalation risk, as it would further destabilize global energy markets. Shutting down oil exports is a primary strategic approach Iran has considered since the conflict began in February. The situation highlights a dangerous cycle of threats and potential responses, raising concerns about wider regional instability.