New war game simulations suggest the Chinese coastguard has only a 0.3% chance of resorting to weapons use during encounters in disputed waters. The research focuses on realistic scenarios, such as Chinese coastguard vessels protecting fishing fleets from unidentified boats. These simulations explore the complexities of maritime standoffs, where ambiguous actions by other vessels can be interpreted as either harmless curiosity or deliberate provocation. Researchers are attempting to understand the decision-making process of the Chinese coastguard in these high-pressure situations. The study highlights the possibility of escalation despite the low probability of direct weapon use, emphasizing the potential for miscalculation. The simulations aim to provide insight into the risk factors involved and potential triggers for conflict in contested maritime regions.