Despite escalating tensions between the US and Iran and disruptions to oil exports from the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, Brent crude has remained below $100 a barrel this month. Oil shipments from Middle East producers have decreased from 18 million barrels per day (bpd) to approximately 11 million bpd since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran seven months ago. However, significant volumes continue to flow through the Strait of Hormuz, currently averaging between 4 and 5 million bpd, supporting a Brent price around $95. Gulf exporters are mitigating disruptions by utilizing alternative routes and ship-to-ship transfers, with Saudi Aramco resuming loadings from Ras Tanura. While exports from Yanbu in the Red Sea have been pressured by a Yemeni Houthi naval blockade, exports from Egypt’s Sidi Kerir have increased, and Iraqi exports have rebounded. Shipments from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have remained relatively stable.