Oil markets operated under the assumption that Donald Trump would avoid escalating conflict with Iran to the point of significant economic disruption. This belief stemmed from a perceived reluctance by the former president to risk a broader economic crisis. The market essentially “bet” that Trump would not fully pursue maximum pressure on Iran’s oil exports. Recent events suggest this calculation was incorrect, as Trump did pursue policies that significantly impacted Iranian oil revenues. This misjudgment highlights the difficulty in predicting the actions of the former US administration, particularly regarding foreign policy. The situation demonstrates a disconnect between market expectations and the actual course of events under Trump’s leadership concerning Iran. The oil market’s initial assessment proved to be a flawed prediction of the geopolitical landscape.