New South Wales (NSW) Labor and Liberal parties attribute potential losses in the upcoming March election to the declining popularity of their respective federal leaders. Both parties believe they are suffering from “guilt by association,” where voter dissatisfaction with national politics is impacting state-level support. Consequently, they are adjusting their election strategies to emphasize state-specific issues and distance themselves from their federal counterparts. This approach aims to protect their “soft vote”– voters who aren’t strongly aligned to either party. The parties are attempting to reframe the election as a contest focused on local concerns rather than national political trends. This shift highlights a growing disconnect between state and federal politics in NSW. The March election is expected to be closely contested as a result of this dynamic.